I've got some shocking news for you if you're a property
investor, and hopefully this will put the confusion to rest
as to whether the market will go up or down in the next 12

Many of the negative views that relate to real estate are
coming off the back-end of what is happening in the U.S.

Despite the information that we have put out recently about
our prediction, some folk are still not convinced.

I suppose the reason why there is a strong focus on the U.S.
real estate market is that it was the catalyst that started
the ball rolling and has led us down this uncertain economic
climate. Confidence is coming back - but not quick enough.

So I want to have a conversation with you as to where the
U.S. is at and how we differ here in Australia.


Many experts in the U.S. still see housing prices as too
high to attract buyers and too low for sellers who have got
negative equity to get out with their dignity intact. 

With such a crazy scenario, there is obviously going to be
more problems in that market. The question is, will it
effect you as a real estate investor?

Let's have a look at it closely...

The first obstacle the U.S. have got is a simple one...
They've got too many houses that no one wants. I read a
report recently that said that nearly 10% of all homes built
this decade are sitting empty.

You're probably wondering how many are actually empty? Over
600,000 homes.

Who owns them? Well, it's probably a bank or a fancy
financial institution that was silly enough to buy the
mortgages two or three years ago.

So the guys that hold the asset have got a problem, don't
they? If they flood the market the prices of those homes
will come crashing down, which further destroys the value of
the asset on the corporate balance sheet. 

They don't want that - they would rather hold it and call it
an un-performing asset at a reasonable valuation rather than
what it's really worth.

These are the games that big companies play - it makes them
sound smart, but it's a dumb move.

Anyway, so yes, it's bad over there and likely to get worse.

But I know what you're thinking... 

What about us here in Australia?

Well, we have no such problem. In fact, we have the reverse.
In Australia, there is a shortage of housing that is quickly
adding up to 100,000 dwellings.

With no immediate solution...

It's really as simple as that... What forces prices down is
something that most property investors don't think about.
Supply and demand.

We're not going to experience the same fall-out that the
States has suffered - that should be obvious to you by now.
But I keep hearing these stories of how it's going to get
worse in the States and how we're going to be dragged along
and suffer the same circumstances.

It isn't going to happen.

To date, the US market generally speaking has fallen by 34%
based on the Case-Schiller Index. It'll probably fall
further, so if you're thinking about investing in the States
- here's what you should do...

Research the market for the next 3-6 months and then
consider buying some of the bargains of the century. Not
many of you would consider that, however there is a real big
opportunity emerging. (Best leave that for another day).

So what about Australia?

Well, here's what I'm doing. I'm looking for value in the
market and a vendor that's a little bit worried as to what
may happen in the next 12-24 months. 


I wont be rushing in just yet, I think the free money out
there that the government is throwing around has created a
short-term spike in prices. Once some of the free money is
taken out of the market, which begins in September, I'll be
opening up the check book again. 

For now, I'm doing my home work, researching, planning and
getting ready to strike after September and through the
early part of 2010.

I know some of the more astute property investors look to
two other fundamental indicators that may suggest where the
real estate market is going and they are... Unemployment and
Interest Rates

Let's deal with them both... 

Naive investors have got really short memories. It's handy
to look back in history and at past recessions to see what
the effect was on real estate.

In the 1982-83 and 1991-92 recessions, falling interest
rates actually boosted Australian house prices as
unemployment rose.

So can you see what happened back then? Cheap money
out-weighed fears of job losses, reinforced by strong banks
and a critical shortage of housing.

The governor of the Reserve Bank (Glen Stevens) said it
himself, most missed it, "If new supply, now at long-term
lows, doesn't improve, fresh demand will further inflate
existing housing prices."

...I know that's grammatically wrong - but he's got 4 MBA's
so he can say anything he likes. The bottom line is, he's
worried about real estate prices going up.


That means profit to you if you know what you're doing...

As a real estate investor that owns a substantial portfolio,
I'm not worried - I'm looking to pick up more deals whilst
the rest of the market is asleep at the wheel. If you've
read this far, don't sit on the fence. Either you're going
to get serious about real estate or you're not.

This article was posted here with input from an astute market
investor here in Australia.If you need further input from us please
email us or comment on this posting where we will make further
comments or make contact with our info source for you.

*If you are in the real estate business, then use this article
to promote sales.
*If you are an investor/buyer, then take this opportunity
to review your property buying options

Published by Henry Sapiecha 5th August 2009
bright blue dividing line